Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.

List of my other reform related markets:

https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats

https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative

https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-a-party-nigel-farage-is-a-memb

https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-top-the-yougov-votin

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-Existence and N/A Criteria Clarification:

  • No Automatic N/A: The absence of a party running specifically as "Reform" does not automatically trigger an N/A outcome. In most cases, factors that lead to the party’s non-existence would similarly cause it to lose the election.

  • Niche Exception: An N/A resolution would only be considered in extremely niche cases where the party's non-existence is due to factors that are 100% unrelated to its performance as a party.

  • Renaming: If the Reform party renames but maintains its key people, structure, and core political beliefs, the new identity will be treated as the subject of this market.

  • Candidate Presence: The market continues even if the party fields only a single candidate or no candidates, as long as the party exists in any real form.

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Farage's Involvement and Its Impact:

  • Irrelevant Role: Farage being part of any party or assuming a leadership role (e.g., if he becomes the leader of the Tories) does not affect the market. The market is solely about Reform’s performance.

  • Outcome Consistency: Even in a scenario where Farage's involvement might otherwise seem influential, if the Conservatives win under his leadership, the market will still resolve as NO.

  • No Change to Existence or N/A Criteria: Any situation involving Farage does not trigger a change in current resolution criteria or the application of N/A conditions.