Will Reform win the next UK election? | Manifold

Will Reform win the next UK election?

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Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.

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@mods this is tagged "UK General Election 2024". Everything under this tag should either be closed or changed to "next UK general election" or "UK general election 202X" or something.

@TomFinnie Removed the tag, good spot

bought Ṁ250 NO

Are you defining "win" as "most seats", "majority of seats", "forms the next government" or in some less conventional way?

Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.

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