Will Reform win the next UK election?
Basic
28
Ṁ9.0k2029
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
69% chance
Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
13% chance
Will there be huge immigration reform in the UK before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK does?
10% chance
Sort by:
@mods this is tagged "UK General Election 2024". Everything under this tag should either be closed or changed to "next UK general election" or "UK general election 202X" or something.
Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
69% chance
What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?
Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
13% chance
Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
52% chance
Will there be huge immigration reform in the UK before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK does?
10% chance