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MANIFOLD
How many Reform councillors will have left the Party by the May 2026 elections.
16
Ṁ201Ṁ5.3k
resolved May 8
100%99.0%
50 - 100
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
6-10
0.1%
11-15
0.1%
16-20
0.1%
20 - 30
0.2%
30 - 50
0.5%Other

This market predicts the number of Reform UK councillors who will be suspended, banned or otherwise leave the party before the May 2026 local elections. Given recent suspensions due to offensive remarks and internal disputes, this market aims to gauge the party's internal stability. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Reform UK or credible news sources.

  • Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that hopenothate.org.uk is being used as a credible news source for the purpose of this market.

Market context
Elections
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Canadian Politics
Mark Carney
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opened a Ṁ10 YES at 10% order

Ignore Other AI helper stries again.

View original context

@MarkNicoll please resolve

The source cited below seems to indicate the market has this one right.

Wait, never mind. The article was updated last on April 17. Maybe it's not an assured resolution yet.

@mods please resolve

Is there light at the end of the tunnel, can some sense win over this national embarrassment party, literally just vote for anyone else.

@AlanTennant I wish this party was illegal to vote for. (I say this despite not living in the UK)

Only 18 so far.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/175342/how-many-councillors-has-reform-uk-lost-since-may/

bought Ṁ50 YES

@MarkNicoll up to 61 now

@MarkNicoll

Already at 9.

https://hopenothate.org.uk/2025/06/13/dropping-like-flies-reform-loses-nine-councillors-in-six-weeks/

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 10% order

Ignore Other AI helper stries again.

bought Ṁ2 YES

@MarkNicoll Other is 0, it's already more than 0.

@AlanTennant other can also mean more than a hundred.

People are also trading

How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?
320k
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
21% chance
If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
212
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
13.5
Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Which member of Reform will be Chancellor after the next general election, if any?
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
21% chance
Will Labour or Reform have the second leadership election between them, after 12th April 2026?
Who will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?