When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
26
461
1.6k
Jul 2
0.5%
By July 2024
3%
By July 2025
3%
By January 2025
5%
By January 2026
8%
[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]
10%
[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]
25%
By January 2030
25%
[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]
28%
[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]
30%
By January 2035
33%
By January 2040
44%
By January 2080
Resolved
NO
By March 2024
Resolved
NO
By January 2024

This market is a derivative of the existing largest market about the laboratory release theory:

This is an unlinked market, where months can resolve independently.

If the original market resolves YES, all future months resolve YES. If the original market resolves NO, all future months resolve NO. Otherwise, a month resolves NO if it arrives without the original market having resolved YES. I will add new months as old months expire, and can add more months by request.

The original market must resolve and stay resolved to count for this market, so this does not include cases such as accidental misclick resolutions, rogue moderator misresolutions, etc. The original market creator intends to resolve their market only when they are certain of the truth and have conferred extensively with the manifold community, so we should not expect any cases of incorrect resolution and re-resolution. The creator cites “the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change”, which we can all agree is a settled matter.

In edge cases such as the market being N/A-ed or the creator permanently leaving manifold before the question can be resolved, I will attempt to still continue running this derivative market according to the spirit of the original question, conferring with the original market creator if possible and never resolving according to my own judgment of the question. If necessary, I will appoint an heir to run this market using the same methodology.

This market also includes meta-options about the other options. If you would like to submit an interesting meta option, let me know in a comment or DM and if I like it I'll use the new toggle Manifold just released to open the market for submissions so you can add it yourself and get unique trader bonuses for anyone who bets on it.

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I created a version of this question that asks when it resolves either YES or NO.

bought Ṁ50 of By January 2040 NO

This market was also horribly mispriced (imo) until I came and corrected it. Another point against citing low-quality prediction markets as strong evidence! (see https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory#p3D6KLWVNla3G4w5QZ5g)

sold Ṁ109 of By January 2080 YES

@jack In my defense I think I had it reasonably priced for a while and then two days ago I saw the ecohealth thing posted at 3 am and quickly sold a bunch of no shares until I could look into it properly

@Joshua Ah, yeah, that makes more sense.

Note that my point was directed against blindly trusting prediction markets, not against you or the traders.

Here's one that accounts for resolution direction:

boughtṀ40By January 2080 NO

@Gabrielle is there a year that you would buy yes at, or do you just overall think the original market is too high?

bought Ṁ30 of By January 2035 NO

@Joshua I’m pretty sure (~90%) the original market will never resolve YES or NO, so all date answers to this market will resolve NO.

Reasoning:

  • Isaac specifically stated “This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention”, so the default assumption is at least something like 10+ years

  • There’s enough evidence for alternative explanations other than lableak that there would need to be some new very strong evidence. But every day that goes by makes it harder for new evidence to be found, especially since the Chinese government seems to want it to remain not-clearly-a-lab-leak.

bought Ṁ10 of [The original market... NO

@Gabrielle I see! I've also now added
[The original market resolves NO before 2030]
[The original market resolves NO before 2080]

So that we can also get odds on that.

bought Ṁ10 of [The original market... NO

See also: