This is a meta-market on https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory (embedded below). It's being created because I don't believe we'll ever have sufficiently convincing evidence on the question, no matter what the answer actually is.

If @IsaacKing resolves this market before 2040, this market resolves immediately, to the year in which it resolves.

If Jan 1 2040 comes, this market resolves to 2040.

Edge case: in the event that @IsaacKing no longer controls his market (perhaps because mods pre-emptively resolve), this market will resolve N/A. The only exception is if Isaac publicly announces that his market should resolve, in which case this market resolves to the year of that announcement.

Sep 2, 1:19pm: (When) will @IsaacKing's COVID/laboratory market resolve? → (When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?