(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

This is a meta-market on https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory (embedded below). It's being created because I don't believe we'll ever have sufficiently convincing evidence on the question, no matter what the answer actually is.

If @IsaacKing resolves this market before 2040, this market resolves immediately, to the year in which it resolves.

If Jan 1 2040 comes, this market resolves to 2040.

Edge case: in the event that @IsaacKing no longer controls his market (perhaps because mods pre-emptively resolve), this market will resolve N/A. The only exception is if Isaac publicly announces that his market should resolve, in which case this market resolves to the year of that announcement.

Sep 2, 1:19pm: (When) will @IsaacKing's COVID/laboratory market resolve? → (When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

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NickAllen avatar
Nick Allenpredicts LOWER

Well, maybe with China throwing in clearly with Russia this past week we'll actually get a good investigation finally.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@NickAllen Wouldn't that make it worse? China now has more incentive to hide the evidence, and the USA more incentive to fabricate it.

ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrencebought Ṁ500 of HIGHER

@IsaacKing I think we are moving towards a consensus that it was a lab leak, but I find this new consensus no more convincing.

It's possible that there's very solid evidence out there, which is difficult to fabricate but easy to cover up. The asymmetry is important. Then I'll lose a lot of M$ here.

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen

We already do; see my comment with the link on the statistical likelihood that the virus would have emerged from the Wuhan wet market.

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen

@NickAllen in the Isaac King post


Pairs of related questions in this format have real potential.

Lots of things labeled 'conspiracy theory' are just counter-narrative and become obvious either way given enough time.

ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrencebought Ṁ500 of HIGHER

@IsaacKing put down M$500 of liquidity and an M$500 bet. There's money to be made here!