When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Question

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?, followed by Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030? and Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040? are most likely. See the market for live updates (39 traders, as of Jul 30, 2026).