Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)
40
1kṀ34042049
49%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves by polling on Jan 1, 2050 whatever superintelligences I think are trustworthy, or polling Manifold or the rationalist community if there are none. I will ask the question in the title and resolve to the majority opinion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
46% chance
Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
59% chance
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
25% chance
(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?
2038
Will we ever have any idea (see description) whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
86% chance
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Did HIV come from a laboratory?
8% chance
If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
19% chance
Did/will H5N1 come from a laboratory?
15% chance