Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)
Plus
32
Ṁ25622049
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves by polling on Jan 1, 2050 whatever superintelligences I think are trustworthy, or polling the rationalist community if there are none. I will ask the question in the title and resolve to the majority opinion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
48% chance
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
23% chance
When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
35% chance
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
24% chance
(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?
2038
Covid a lab leak?
53% chance
Where did COVID-19 come from
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance