When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
19
650
1.3K
2040
61%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
40%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
18%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
17%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
4%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
1.8%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.

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bought Ṁ10 of Conditional on resol... NO

I created a simpler version of this question that just asks when it resolves without the yes/no conditionals

@jack This already existed elsewhere, the point of my market was to discern the asymmetric utility bias.

@IsaacKing I looked and I didn't find one that was the same as what I wanted to ask.

Do both the yes&no conditionals for a year resolve no when that year passes without resolution?

Also plugging my own version of this from before:

/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-covid19-came

@Joshua Yeah

Can you reword, or at least add a note in the description, to make the above statement clear. That is confusing and not how you would normally interpret "Conditional on resolving ... will it resolve by <date>. In particular, I think there is substantial probability mass that it never resolves.