When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
21
660
Ṁ3.8KṀ1.3K
2040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
55%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
35%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
18%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
17%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
4%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
4%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?
1.8%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.
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@jack This already existed elsewhere, the point of my market was to discern the asymmetric utility bias.
Do both the yes&no conditionals for a year resolve no when that year passes without resolution?
Also plugging my own version of this from before:
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