If they both create election models whose will favor the Democrats more?
Basic
8
Ṁ206
Nov 9
53860%

Resolves to the model released closest to the election. Resolves based on the same day so if 538 has one closer to the election than Nate silver it doesn’t count. Based on the presidential election model

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@JamesF what is the resolution criteria?

@MickBransfield Whichever model gives the democratic candidate a higher chance of winning

@JamesF which version if 538 keeps the three different models (deluxe, classic, light)?

@MickBransfield The default model they show to you, if you visit on an incognito window and click on their model the one it shows you.

@JamesF got it, thank you. FYI: in 2020 I think Morris released his last model the night before the election whereas Silver released his last the morning of. (I could have them flipped or be misremembering).