51% chance. Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, recently was laid off (it has been a part of ABC for the last decade). According to him, "Much of FiveThirtyEight’s vital intellectual property — such as the election forecast models — is merely licensed to Disney. The license term for these models expires with [Nate Silver's] contract this summer. [He] still own these models, and can license or sell them elsewhere" (https://natesilver.substack.com/p/some-personal-news). If he releases predictions for the 2024 US elections, will they be more accurate than the model put out by FiveThirtyEight? If either Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight do not release election predictions for 2024, resolves N/A. If Nate Silver continues to license his model to Disney/ABC/FiveThirtyEight, resolves N/A. If Nate Silver licenses his model to some group other than Disney/ABC/FiveThirtyEight, that will count as "his model". The predictions used will be the final predictions released before the elections. Any predictions given earlier than that will be ignored, even if they are more accurate. If multiple models are used (such as a "Deluxe Model" and a "Classic Model"), it will be whichever model is more prominent in publications. If multiple models seem to be equally prominent, it will be the model that includes more information. I'll define "more accurate" by scoring both predictions with a "log score" method, as detailed in this Substack post (by @jack), weighted so that a Senate seat is worth 12.8 House seats and the Presidency is worth 435 House seats. This allocation is so that the House, Senate, and Presidency are all weighted roughly equally. If a model does not call a specific seat, that will count as a 50/50 prediction. A prediction phrased ">99%" or "<1%" will be treated as 99.5% and 0.5% respectively.