Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?

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Ṁ2759Nov 13

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this market resolves yes if 538 indicates aggregated polling in favor of the correct winner of the election.

Ie. If 538 says Trump has 50.1% chance of winning and Trump wins (and vice versa for Biden), this market resolves yes

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@SamBogerd I’m literally going to go off there probability dashboard for who will be president. So I’m assuming the answer to your question is the model rather than the aggregate polling…not sure they differentiate the two

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