Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
Nov 13

this market resolves yes if 538 indicates aggregated polling in favor of the correct winner of the election.

Ie. If 538 says Trump has 50.1% chance of winning and Trump wins (and vice versa for Biden), this market resolves yes

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Aggregated polling? So just the polling average? Or the model which (might) include other factors too?

@SamBogerd I’m literally going to go off there probability dashboard for who will be president. So I’m assuming the answer to your question is the model rather than the aggregate polling…not sure they differentiate the two

Reminder that 538 is only as good as the polls that go into their model. The polls were way off in 2016, better in 2020.

Primaries should be a good data point for how well polls are indicative of actual sentiment.


When is your cut off for checking their prediction?

@GCS The day before the election.

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