Will compare nate's final model release on election day to EBO at that time. in the event of some weird bugs or ambiguities i'll turn the market over to mods
@nsokolsky But he has not been more bullish relative to prediction/betting markets. In fact, he had been more bullish on the Democratic candidate in every election since 2008 (based on Iowa Electronic Market for 2008 & 2012, and Predictit for 2016 & 2020). That might be because Democrats led the polling average in each election but still there is a pattern here
@PlainBG In the final forecast for 2016, he was more bullish on Trump than betting markets. For example, PredictIt had Trump at 22 cents (and Hillary at 82 cents, so adjusted that's ~21%), while Nate had him at ~29%.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/