Will Nate Silver's model have a higher probability of Kamala victory than electionbettingodds.com on election day?
Standard
112
Ṁ20k
Nov 6
60%
chance

Will compare nate's final model release on election day to EBO at that time. in the event of some weird bugs or ambiguities i'll turn the market over to mods

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:

I have no idea lol but I think Nate will come around

bought Ṁ500 NO

Nate’s a lot more bullish on Trump than others - and that’s been the case in 2016 and 2020 as well.

@nsokolsky But he has not been more bullish relative to prediction/betting markets. In fact, he had been more bullish on the Democratic candidate in every election since 2008 (based on Iowa Electronic Market for 2008 & 2012, and Predictit for 2016 & 2020). That might be because Democrats led the polling average in each election but still there is a pattern here

@PlainBG In the final forecast for 2016, he was more bullish on Trump than betting markets. For example, PredictIt had Trump at 22 cents (and Hillary at 82 cents, so adjusted that's ~21%), while Nate had him at ~29%.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

reposted

Interesting:

this market is basically a coinflip

2008: Higher

2012: Higher

2016: Similar

2020: Higher

2024: ?

@PlainBG 2016 was lower iirc. Predictit had Hillary around 82%.