Which keys will the Democratic Candidate win?
61
3.1kṀ28kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
YESUncharismatic challenger
Resolved
NOCharismatic incumbent
Resolved
YESNo scandal
Resolved
YESNo social unrest
Resolved
YESMajor policy change
Resolved
YESStrong long-term economy
Resolved
YESStrong short-term economy
Resolved
YESNo third party
Resolved
NOIncumbent seeking re-election
Resolved
YESNo primary contest
Resolved
NOMidterm gains
Resolved
NONo foreign/military failure
Resolved
YESMajor foreign/military success
This is based on The Keys to The White House, a prediction system for U.S. presidential elections. For each Key, if Allan Lichtman decides that it's true, then it resolves YES. If he never publishes his analysis, then this market is N/A.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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