Resolves to "yes" if there are at least 3 prominent AI safety bills (subjective, up to me, but more likely to qualify with coverage from major news outlets) that do not pass in Congress (halt in the House of Representatives or the Senate) after votes in which 90% or more of House / Senate Democrats vote for one side and 90% or more of House / Senate Republicans vote for the other side.
Here, I use a broader definition of "AI safety" than "AI notkilleveryoneism," including AI ethics (responsible AI, fairness, accountability, transparency), misuse risks (deepfakes, building weapons wtih AI), and AGI risks. However, I do not count bills that fail to pass because of clear connections to existing partisan issues (e.g. social welfare programs to deal with AI-related unemployment) -- this part is also subjective and up to me.
Mar 25, 9:36pm: Will AI safety be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024? → Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024?
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@JakubKraus then I'm at 70 or 80 percent YES. I don't think this means AI alignment will become partisan though, to be clear.