2
Will the first main US presidential debate for the 2024 election include any mention of AI?
55
closes 2025
80%
chance

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Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?61%
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?61%
Will the 2025 presidential Inaugural Address in the United States include any of these exact phrases related to AI?65%
By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?13%
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?67%
Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?4%
Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?92%
Will anyone be elected to political office while promising to outsource all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?10%
Will AI Safety via Debate be cited more than 50 times in 2023?30%
Will AI Safety via Debate be cited more than 25 times in 2023?42%
Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?7%
Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?16%
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?33%
Will Donald Trump criticise AI before 2025?76%
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?19%
Will the US government launch an effort in 2023 to augment human intelligence biologically in response to AI risk?3%
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?18%
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?31%
Will any country pass a law explicitly regulating artificial intelligence during 2023?84%
Will speech dominate 2024 machine learning?26%