Will AI be mentioned at all in the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Nov 7

This is like the original market (https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the) but it resolves YES if artificial intelligence is mentioned at least once in one of the debates.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

What if there aren't any debates?

bought Ṁ25 NO
bought Ṁ22 of YES

Either this market is way WAY overvalued, or the "major" one is way WAY undervalued. The only difference between the two are the number of times AI is mentioned unless I'm mistaken. And I think it's a reasonable assumption that if a topic is brought up once it's actually MORE likely to be brought up again, which would mean that for these two markets to be consistent with each other, the other one should be no less than the square of this market, which would currently be 64%.

More related questions