Will the "culture war" come for AI before end 2024?
32
295
1k
2025
49%
chance

Resolves "YES" if a significantly observable faction of the general public in US starts calling AI "woke", being "for AI" or "pro-AI" as "woke", and/or using a derogatory nickname for AI or for people who are not "against" AI. Let's say five, otherwise unrelated, reports of things like group We Stand With Kids starts efforts to intimidate school boards to remove AI from school computers, alumnus of Amity Institute gets harassed for wearing "Go AI" shirt, cars get bumper stickers "PROUD PARENT OF A STUDENT WHO DOES THEIR OWN HOMEWORK" then stories spread that a group calling itself "AI ARMY" starts punching in their windows.

Does not count if the person calling AI "woke" is Ta-Nehisi Coates or a public figure with a demonstrable vested interest does something that could provoke culture war.

I don't consider the terms "pro-AI" and "anti-AI" to be meaningful. This is about hostile behavior among groups in the general public based on that terminology.

Includes but not limited to all scenarios contemplated in this market:

https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-the-leftright-culture-war-come-cb20067ca8e5?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

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It always freaks me out when Google employees protest Google in public. Here we have AI sort of a proxy for Gaza conflict

https://abc7news.com/tech-workers-protest-israel-funding-at-google-offices-in-south-bay-ai-powered-genocide-employee-palestine/14675839/

This Reddit from end of last year but would count if it were 2024. In this one it’s “family and friends from the Bible Belt” unfriending someone for not liking their “anti-AI propaganda” on FB

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/HAS2IsvP8s

Not yet at culture war levels but nurses tend to be against abortion bans and more generally sex regulation, may get lumped in at some point

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/22/kaiser-nurses-protest-ai-san-francisco/

Hey Manifold I thought you were the epicenter of EA. Any movement from this bunch?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-13/ai-protest-at-openai-hq-in-san-francisco-focuses-on-military-work

bought Ṁ11 YES

Yglesias with a take as a result of the disproportionate number of posts/complaints yesterday about Gemini's refusal to create certain historical images.

(Obviously not suggesting this is a resolution just pointing out it seems like AI models and capabilities are joining the culture war lexicon at the moment)

DeSantis was for AI before he was against it

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/625663-ai-desantis-woke/

bought Ṁ3 of YES

Does this count people calling the censorship/controls around AI woke or just AI in general. I think the former has already happened and led to a lot of complaints about GPT being essentially neutered in favor of political correctness and getting ahead of any possible legal issues

@MichaelSmith1e9f Fantastic question! Please point me to an example of people calling the censorship/controls around AI "woke" and we'll see.

@MichaelSmith1e9f If you can do this before the market ending in 2023 resolves I'd especially appreciate it.

predicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent https://www.forbes.com/sites/martineparis/2023/04/16/elon-musk-launches-xai-to-fight-chatgpt-woke-ai-with-twitter-data/?sh=4cd66ee751f8
"A self-proclaimed advocate for free speech, Musk tweeted, “The danger of training AI to be woke - in other words, lie - is deadly.”"

@MichaelSmith1e9f Elon saying GPT is being trained to be "woke" could definitely spark a culture war. However this market may overvalue the impact on the general public discourse of Elon Musk starting yet another new company and tweeting. Quite a few will have no idea this event occurred. Thanks for sharing this. I hereby define "significant observable group" has to be a lot more visible than "Elon and people who listen to him."

predicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent host Jesse Watters moaned that “stupid liberal robots” would soon be censoring and discriminating against conservatives like himself. Laura Ingraham has confoundingly labeled AI an “extended arm of, you know, socialism,” with guest Charlie Kirk seeing it as a “woke superweapon.” (He, too, implied that Democrats are in charge of OpenAI, saying ChatGPT should be called “ChatDNC.”)

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/woke-ai-big-tech-attack-conservatives-1234719673/

Idk man I just think you didn't do any cursory research before posting the question, the internet is littered with this stuff

@MichaelSmith1e9f I know a lot of people listen to those people. Let me fix the criteria.

@MichaelSmith1e9f We just have different ideas of what constitutes "research." I talk to people who like to engage in "culture war" lite activities, or who are estranged from loved ones due to "culture war," Questions I asked included "Has Gloria ever sent you anything about AI?" "My FB is flooded with ChatGPT stuff, are your friends doing this?" Joke about Elon having influence on geopolitics (this got, "Well Elon isn't a politician and what about Biden did xyz") Curious to get broader context from asking here.

In my circles, I see a lot of culture war surrounding so-called “doomers” and “accelerationists”. I think I have yet to observe a pro-AI woke person- woke folks seem to be more doomer category (and left leaning), from my limited vantage point. Accelerationists appear to me to be more antiwoke/right wing. So yes I think culture war surrounding AI will be present in 2024, but not in any of the scenarios described here. Therefore, I don’t know if I should participate in this market.

P.s. i love u

@crowlsyong Thanks! Worth remembering all the scenarios described in the other Culture War In '24 market are also included here. I just didn't list them all over again.

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