
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
28
1kṀ8942030
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott. It must be something where a significant number of Scott's friends, readers, and/or professional aquaintances are angry at him or want to stop associating with him. It must also be public enough that I hear about it through public channels.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028?
35% chance