
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
70
1kṀ51112030
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism. This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance
Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027?
17% chance
Will Sam Altman convert to Christian/Mormon Transhumanism by 2035?
8% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
64% chance
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
2% chance
Will Scott Alexander get divorced?
21% chance
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
3% chance