Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Basic
92
14k
2030
3%
chance

Anything highly credible, such as what happened with SBF. Doesn't need to be legally charged.

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

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Does keeping the $40,000 from the Amazon associates bug count?

@DavidBolin what was that?

Betting YES For the memes

I've created a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

'Found' meaning convicted, accused in a plausible manner? what if the fraud is minor, does not get prosecuted, but is discovered / admitted after the statute of prosecution expires?

Anything highly plausible, such as the current accusations about SBF.

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