Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
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This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott. It must be something where a significant number of Scott's friends, readers, and/or professional aquaintances are angry at him or want to stop associating with him. It must also be public enough that I hear about it through public channels.

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

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This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

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