
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
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It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable". And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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