Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
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148
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2029
3%
chance

Failure to perform doesn't count -- it must be due to behavioral or social problems, not performance.

Can be termination or resignation, since the boundary is sometimes blurry. As long as the position was credibly ended because of the behavior.

Some examples that would count:

-Sexual harassment allegations that resulted in termination or resignation

-Resigning after an inflammatory email is made public

-Getting into an altercation with a coworker and being fired

-Violating company policies, such as misusing property or time

-Online posts that caused a scandal for the firm, resulting in termination or resignation

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Prior on this is like <1%, going by my last job (one person lost his job over 2 years in a ~1000 people company for getting into a fistfight).

Adjust slightly up for Scott being a weird guy, somewhat down for Scott's weirdness mostly being him being unusually calm and even tempered, and slightly down for him being effectively self-employed (he could lose the role during a scandal, or get a new job then lose it). Slightly up because if he does get a new job it seems like there's a decent chance for it to be at some kind of high visibility role at a small startup-ish company that cares about reputation. Overall I still think this stands around 1%.

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Given he runs his own psychiatry practice, this would be quite the trick.

@EdwardKmett Using him as a guinea pig for something meant to be complementary with my criminal charge markets. You're right that running his own clinic would make this less likely, all else held equal.