There have been many attempts at self-resolving markets, such as resolving to the market price at close, or only doing so with a certain probability, resolving to the quiescent market price with a time limit, or with a different result at the time limit, or with no time limit, resolving to a poll, or a different type of poll, or a third type of poll, or even resolving to a future superintelligence. None of these have been entirely satisfactory.

Will this be a solved problem by the end of 2023? Will Manifold eventually settle on a single type of market that self-resolves robustly and to everyone's satisfaction? (Or a few different types for different situations.)

At the end of 2023, I will pick the self-resolving mechanism that seems the best to me and apply it to determine the resolution of this market. (If it's a method that requires the market stay open for a certain length of time, such as involving a quiescent market price, I'll extend the close date as necessary.)