Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to (serious) poll]
resolved Jan 6

This is an almost-duplicate of:

At market close, I will post a poll asking Manifold users what the correct resolution should be, and the majority result of that poll will determine whether this market resolves to YES or NO.

There is one difference between this market and that one, which is that in this market I will treat anyone who votes for an incorrect result as though they had resolved their own market incorrectly. i.e. I will be more reluctant to bet in markets they have created or to trust them in other ways, and I will think less of them as a person. I would encourage other Manifold users to treat dishonorable voters the same way.

Please see the embedded market and the discussion in its comments for more context.

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predicted YES

@XComhghall I hereby deem you Dishonorable.

Related: I asked trustworthy community members to vote on a disputed resolution here:

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-this-resolution-council-propos. It worked pretty well I think. I think the way I framed it feels significantly different than this one, and likely to work better, even though mechanically it's not that different.

@XComhghall what do you think of that one? If you were eligible to participate in that resolution council, what would you do?

predicted YES

@jack That seems akin to a congress, an electoral college, or a committee or commission. Whereas for voters, it is their right to vote as they wish, a committee of agents or representatives are bound by a certain responsibility and duty.

@XComhghall Thanks, interesting. Let's suppose I changed my thing to a resolution council that any Manifold user was eligible to participate in (instead of only badged users). They join simply by casting a vote, and then they are automatically considered a member of the council. Isn't that (mechanically) the same as Isaac's poll? And doesn't Isaac's poll here also say the voters are bound by a responsibility to resolve accurately - why does that not bind just as much as what I say in mine? Is it the wording differences? I do think mine does a better job of communicating the responsibility you take on by voting, maybe that's enough to sway the norms that people abide by.

predicted YES

@jack Thanks. Isaac's serious poll does not specify a commission of responsibility. It speaks of how Isaac will personally treat incorrect voters, which threat I readily dismissed. And knowing the history of manipulation and 'incorrect' resolutions with similar 'was Biden president' markets, I do not see any binding responsibilities that would be with a committee or council.

A self-selected resolution council is technically the same. As much as I think it is silly and unreasonable, I'd respect it if you say we are commissioned to resolve the market correctly to the best of our judgement.

predicted YES

* I do not see any binding responsibilities that would be with a committee or council, and a serious question (market).

predicted YES

Ok, here's the poll. Please vote by liking one of my two replies to this comment.

If you believe that Joe Biden was the president of the United States at the beginning of 2023, like the comment that says "YES". If you do not believe that to be true, like the comment that says "NO".

I will treat incorrect votes in this poll similarly to how I will treat incorrect resolutions of a market. If I believe you did it intentionally, I will consider you Dishonorable, and trust you less in the future.

I will check the likes at an arbitrary point in the next few days and resolve the market based on the result. If the counts are tied at the time, I'll just check back later until it's not tied anymore.

predicted YES


predicted YES


bought Ṁ100 of YES

Notably, if someone honestly believes that the answer is NO, but knows that I think the answer is YES, they will vote for NO in the other market, but YES in this one. This does not seem desirable to me.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

For the spirit of science! I will vote no no matter what. I honestly believe the answer is (very likely) yes.

@IsaacKing I think this is fine? If there's someone who honestly thinks Biden isn't president when he is, then I'll have at least as many doubts about whether that person will resolve markets correctly as if they knew Biden was president and voted NO anyway.

predicted YES

There is a certain other serious poll known as election. I can write on my ballot Donald Duck, without actually wanting him to be president, and it is perfectly fair and fine. If a poll of opinion is not limited in who can vote, voters should be allowed to vote as they wish.

predicted YES

@XComhghall That's an interesting point. My vote in the 2016 election for someone who I did not believe would make a better president than the other candidate.

But I think there's a difference between those things. An election vote is not asking about your true belief; it's just a vote.

@XComhghall I can draw a different analogy. Market resolution is a poll. It has exactly one voter, who votes in the poll by clicking one of the buttons.

I think my analogy is much closer to what this is than yours. This is just a generalized market resolution with n > 1

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