
Was the real Donald Trump detained in prison the entire day on 11/15/2022, eastern time?
Quiescence is defined as the probability remaining constant to the nearest percentage point for two consecutive business days, eastern time, including non-business hours and days between them, but not necessarily whole business days.
The market will not close before 11/30/2022 ET, or until it quiesces.
The market will resolve to the probability at the first occurrence of quiescence after 11/30/2022 ET.
The market is to resolve to the consensus probability. If a participant in the market is absent, e.g., on vacation, they may ask in the comments not to close the market before they return.
Based on:
Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (resolves to quiescent market price)
🏅 Top traders
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1 | Ṁ20 | |
2 | Ṁ19 | |
3 | Ṁ8 | |
4 | Ṁ1 | |
5 | Ṁ0 |