Was the real Donald Trump detained in prison the entire day on 11/15/2022, eastern time?
Quiescence is defined as the probability remaining constant to the nearest percentage point for two consecutive business days, eastern time, including non-business hours and days between them, but not necessarily whole business days.
The market will not close before 11/30/2022 ET, or until it quiesces.
The market will resolve to the probability at the first occurrence of quiescence after 11/30/2022 ET.
The market is to resolve to the consensus probability. If a participant in the market is absent, e.g., on vacation, they may ask in the comments not to close the market before they return.
Based on:
Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (resolves to quiescent market price)
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@a The real Donald Trump was detained in prison the entire day on 11/15/2022, the Trump we see is fake / a form-changing alien.
@a Trump was in a metaphorical prison of his own making, created by his desire to WIN and his inability to move on from his defeat in 2020 and the defeat of his endorsed candidates earlier this month. His self-image depends on him being a WINNER, and so he is locked into a single course of action where he must win again at the risk of losing his identity.
Trump was also in Twitter Jail, with a lifetime sentence that was only later commuted.
