This is another experiment in self-resolving markets. Some previous attempts:

• This type has this issue that a single large trader can force the market to resolve incorretly and turn a profit in doing so.

• This type has the issue that it may not resolve for a long time past the close date

• This type has the issue that it's trying to exploit a cognitive bias among traders who would otherwise exploit the market, and isn't otherwise any more robust to manipulation than the first type.

And all three of those have the issue that they'll tend to stabalize a little below 100% or above 0%, since it's so cheap for a single trader to keep the probability from going all the way to one extreme.

This market is a new attempt with I hope will avoid the problems of the previous 3 types. I expect it to have its own new and exciting problems instead. :)

Upon market close, I will post a YES/NO poll in which each Manifold account can only vote once. The poll will not be anonymous; everyone will be able to see who voted for what. This market resolves to the majority result of the poll. (For example, if 49% of voters vote YES and 51% vote NO, this market resolves to NO.)

This works by:

• Preventing someone with more mana from forcing the market to go where they want it to, by ensuring that every user gets an equal vote.

• Using the threat of social dissaproval to keep people from voting for a result that's clearly "wrong".

But each of those has their own downsides that increase the chance of an incorrect resolution:

• More accurate predictors don't have any more say over how this market resolves than less accurate predictors.

• Social pressure isn't always in favor of the right answer. >50% of traders might believe that YES is the correct answer to a certain question, but without common knowledge of such, they may risk social penalties for voting YES and all choose to vote NO instead. Having the poll be anonymous would solve this problem, but increases the chance that people will coordinate to vote for an answer they know to be wrong.