Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?
Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?
17
1kṀ1788Dec 31
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
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At least 40h/week in total, can be split between multiple people as long as they are employed long-term.
see also:
/CodeandSolder/will-manifold-moderation-get-signif
/CodeandSolder/will-manifold-implement-features-me
/CodeandSolder/will-manifold-hire-a-professional-m
/CodeandSolder/will-manifold-hire-a-professional-m-e1901cc24177
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Why would they?
There are currently a lot of very enthusiastic market creators doing a good job of creating markets for "free" - either for Mana and leaderboard points or because they are passionate about certain subjects which they would like to see market estimates of.
Why would someone being paid by the hour do a better job?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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