Are we about to hit another AI winter?
195
1kṀ32kresolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ595 | |
| 2 | Ṁ497 | |
| 3 | Ṁ419 | |
| 4 | Ṁ388 | |
| 5 | Ṁ327 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
27% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
7% chance
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
32% chance
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
24% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
37% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
61% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance
In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?
50% chance
If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?