
Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?
9
1kṀ6772029
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Tech companies contributing to AI progress--on both the hardware and software side--are making a lot of money lately. The question is: Is it over, or just getting started?
Resolves subjectively, based on my diligent assessment of the literature on January 1, 2029. Resolves YES if I reasonably decide that we were indeed in an AI bubble at market creation, meaning AI-connected stocks are generally significantly overvalued.
If it's very unclear at the time of close, I reserve the right to extend the market until the question is sufficiently settled.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
45% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
68% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
7% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
15% chance
Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
46% chance
Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?
84% chance
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
61% chance
If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?
38% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
13% chance
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
21% chance