MANIFOLD
Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?
30
Ṁ1kṀ2.1k
2029
42%
chance

Tech companies contributing to AI progress--on both the hardware and software side--are making a lot of money lately. The question is: Is it over, or just getting started?

Resolves subjectively, based on my diligent assessment of the literature on January 1, 2029. Resolves YES if I reasonably decide that we were indeed in an AI bubble at market creation, meaning AI-connected stocks are generally significantly overvalued.

If it's very unclear at the time of close, I reserve the right to extend the market until the question is sufficiently settled.

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opened a Ṁ150 NO at 50% order

Just to be clear: if the “bubble pops” say early 2027, but prices of AI companies and stocks are still higher (say at least matching average S&P 500 growth also) than in mid-2024, does this market resolve yes or no? Wording kinda makes it sound like no.

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