In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
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41
Ṁ3864
2030
3%
2024
10%
2025
13%
2026
8%
2027
6%
2028
6%
2029
53%
2030+ or never

This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter". The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.

The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.

This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.

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bought Ṁ10 2027 YES

Becoming convinced this will happen around 2026 given that GPT-5 is still not released.

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