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MANIFOLD
If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
31
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k
2031
0.6%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
35%
Legislation/treaties
9%
Economic crash
16%
War
0%
Sabotage
38%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
1.1%
Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

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Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

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