If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
25
1kṀ790
2031
13%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
28%
Legislation/treaties
1.9%
Economic crash
11%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
45%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
0.1%
Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules