Are we about to hit another AI winter?
36
116
Ṁ2.7KṀ710
2025
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
65% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
35% chance
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
24% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
44% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
38% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
69% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
32% chance
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
49% chance
Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?
46% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
15% chance