Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
234
1kṀ92k9999
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if general consensus is that we are in another AI winter comparable to the AI winters of the 1970s and 1990s
Resolves NO if general consensus is that we have realized AGI.
Closing date will be moved forward perpetually untill either of the two resolution critera have been met.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
7% chance
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
24% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
63% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
39% chance