Tied first place in the Rank column resolves as YES, even if lower ELO
The standard leaderboard, no modifications/category/filters
If o1-preview first enters the leaderboard in any other position than #1, this resolves NO.
Edited: If only mini or full version get listed, I'll wait with resolving the question. If o1-preview "never" (EOY enough?) gets listed, I'll resolve this to NO rather than N/A.
If this gets messy with names, i.e. something that's probably o1-preview but not certainly, I'll do my best to hear arguments from both sides and figure it out.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ269 | |
| 2 | Ṁ124 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
there it is
we can still bet on the ELO on October 1st in my market...
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/what-elo-will-openais-o1-model-get
Looks like it's right on the borderline, with still pretty big margins
Nice market.
Here's a Plus market for the ELO of the model (on October 1st)
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/what-elo-will-openais-o1-model-get