By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
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resolved Nov 27
Resolved
YES
DeepSeek releases R1-Lite

By March 31, 2025, will an open-source AI model—with weights available for commercial use and requiring attribution similar to Meta’s Llama—be released that outperforms OpenAI’s new o1-preview model on established benchmarks?

1. Time Frame: deadline as the end of the first quarter in 2025 (March 31, 2025).

2. Criteria for the Open-Source Model:

- Availability: Weights must be available for commercial use.

- Attribution and license: must resemble what Meta and others have previously done in the past.

3. Performance Benchmark: The model must outperform OpenAI’s new o1-preview model on established benchmarks (at least 2 major ones) that it currently leads on.

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