By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
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2025
63%
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By June 30, 2025, will an open-source AI model be released that surpasses OpenAI's o1 preview (or full) model on major performance benchmarks, with its weights available for commercial use under an attribution license similar to Meta’s Llama?

  1. Time Frame: The model must be released by the end of the second quarter of 2025 (June 30, 2025).

  2. Open-Source Model Criteria:

    • Weights Availability: The model’s weights must be publicly accessible and available for commercial use, allowing businesses and developers to freely integrate it into their applications.

    • Attribution and Licensing: The licensing terms must require attribution, in line with prior releases such as Meta’s Llama, meaning users must credit the creators but can use the model commercially.

  3. Performance Criteria: The model must outperform OpenAI’s o1 preview (or full) model on at least two widely recognized AI benchmarks or https://lmarena.ai/

(inspired from https://manifold.markets/JohnL/by-the-end-of-q1-2025-will-an-open)

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Let’s say it’s better than o1 preview but worse than the full o1. How would this question resolve?

@mr_mino yes, the description says 'OR"

bought Ṁ250 YES

I would be surprised if o1 even ranked no 1 on lmarena right now

@Phill indeed but that's not exactly the question :)

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