
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
138
11kṀ100kDec 31
11%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves similar to this market: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat, but the AI model has to be OpenAI o1 or a direct iteration of o1.
The market will resolve to YES if:
- The linked market resolves YES because of OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration)
- OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration) accomplishes a comparable feat as the model that caused the linked market to resolve YES
Note: By "direct iteration," this market refers to any model explicitly branded as a continuation or update of OpenAI o1, such as a model named "o2" or "o3", rather than a distinct, separately branded model.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?
Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it?
12% chance
Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
90% chance
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad before 2027?
83% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
71% chance
Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
91% chance
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2028?
94% chance
Will an AI get gold at the IMO? (no time restrain)
62% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
89% chance
What will be the first year that an AI gets gold on an International Mathematical Olympiad?