Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the current wave of Iranian protests that began on December 28, 2025 is suppressed by December 31, 2026. "Suppressed" is defined as a sustained cessation of large-scale, organized demonstrations across multiple cities for a period of at least 30 consecutive days, with no significant resurgence of nationwide protest activity.
Resolution will be determined by monitoring reports from credible international news sources including Reuters, AP News, BBC, Al Jazeera, and Iran International, as well as human rights organizations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. The market resolves NO if protests continue at significant scale or resurge during the resolution period.
Background
Mass demonstrations erupted across multiple cities in Iran beginning December 28, 2025, amid a deepening economic crisis and widespread dissatisfaction with the government. While initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and the severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
The Iranian rial dropped to 1.42 million against the US dollar—a 56 percent drop in value in just six months—with food prices soaring by an average of 72 percent compared with last year. At least 15 protesters and one member of security forces have been killed during seven days of demonstrations that have spread to 174 locations nationwide, with rallies reported in 60 cities across 25 provinces.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described participants as "rioters" and called for their suppression, signaling a hardening official stance as the unrest entered its second week. Khamenei appointed IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi—a figure internationally wanted for terrorism—as Deputy Commander of the IRGC to oversee the suppression, a clear admission that standard police forces have failed to contain the unrest.
Considerations
Previous crackdowns on the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests lasted for months and killed more than 500 people with over 22,000 detained. However, the regime retains a large security apparatus and would likely suppress such dissent without losing control of the country. The long-standing record of Iran's security institutions and state media suggests that a return to repression remains entirely possible.
1,000If anyone believes that China or Russia would send special forces to suppress protests in Iran, that is not realistic. The core basis of the regime lies within Iran’s Shi’a Muslim population. If non-Muslim foreign forces (kyafirs) were seen killing Iranians, that core support base would likely turn against Khamenei.
Chinese and Russian personnel are generally distinguishable from Iranians, making covert involvement implausible. The deployment of foreign special force in Iran in support of Khamenei would therefore be counterproductive rather than stabilizing.
I also believe that most Muslim countries, possibly with the exception of Iraq would be unwilling to provide direct security support to Khamenei. Under these conditions, a Ukraine-style revolutionary 2014 scenario cannot be ruled out and is entirely possible.
https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khame?
