Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026. Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes. The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.

Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International). A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare. A bloodless coup will not count, unless there's sustained warfare in its aftermath. Guerrillas will not count unless they're so widespread that they require sustained military operations to crush it/get the regime's hands full for a significant amount of time, resulting in serious losses for both sides.

Background

Nationwide protests began in late December 2025 at Tehran's Grand Bazaar in response to worsening economic conditions, before spreading to universities and other cities, with slogans evolving from economic grievances to political and anti-government demands. The rial has lost more than 40 percent of its value since Israel's 12-day conflict with Iran in June 2025. As of January 9, protests across all 31 provinces left millions in the streets.

The Iranian regime is on the cusp of a precarious transition for its 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi has intensified his political efforts and appealed to the international community to help force out Ali Khamenei's religious dictatorship. By January 10, 2026, at least 2,000 protesters were killed nationwide over the previous 48 hours as Iranian security forces escalated their use of live ammunition.

Considerations

A multi-sided civil war could risk drawing in regional actors. Azerbaijan may encourage ethnic separatism among Iran's Azerbaijani population; Turkey might intervene to prevent Kurdish empowerment; Saudi Arabia has previously supported Baluch groups; and Israel may pick favorites. Iran is held together by two coercive institutions: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ideological core of the regime, and the national army, rooted in traditional state defense. The arrangement has been that the army stays politically quiescent while the guard corps handles internal repression.

The deployment of the Artesh to crush protestors, the high number of protestors being killed, as well as the more "secular" nature of this institution could trigger a break in the chain of command, with soldiers, officers, or even the high command disobeying orders to murder their own citizens, or being moved by their cause. The influence of Reza Pahlavi and possibly American intervention could tip the balance between ideology and pragmatism. This has precedent in Iranian history (and American history of foreign interventions).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (26 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).