Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile. This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.

Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.). The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.

Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend. Resolves YES.

Interception rates: weekly average falls under 33%. so long as it is the result of depleting interceptors, rather than the use of hypersonic gliders and such. Resolves NO.

In case less than 3 missiles per day are fired, even if it is a single missile per day, and it manages to hit important targets consistently without being intercepted, it will resolve as NO.

Note: its ballistic missile interception rates.

Market can resolve without these metrics in case there's uncontroversial and widespread acceptance in military circles + mainstream media. I will use good sense, and most likely will stick to the metrics.

Edge cases: If a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached before either side is depleted, the market resolves based on remaining inventory estimates at the time of agreement. If production capacity is destroyed but stockpiles remain, the market considers only existing inventory, not future production potential.

Background

As of February 2026, Iran's ballistic missile arsenal was estimated at approximately 2,500 missiles, though estimates suggest Iran's stock shrank from 2,500 missiles before fighting to between 1,000 and 1,200 available missiles after firing about 550 during the war and Israel destroying between a third to half of the arsenal. Israeli military estimates placed Iran's production rate at dozens of ballistic missiles per month as of March 1, 2026, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Iran had been producing "over 100" such missiles a month.

The US and allies are being forced to use up much of their limited supply of expensive interceptors to defend against Iran's heavy missile and drone attacks, with interceptor missiles being expensive and very time consuming to produce, and usually far more costly than the Iranian projectiles they defend against. If the US used interceptors during the current Iran war at the same rate it did during the Twelve-Day War, it would use half of its entire interceptor stockpile in four to five weeks.

Considerations

Military doctrine requiring two to three interceptors per inbound threat magnifies depletion rates, transforming each Iranian missile wave into a multiplier effect on coalition defensive inventories. Israeli officials and independent experts believe Iran may be employing a strategy to run down air defense supplies with relatively smaller but steady attacks over a longer period. Additionally, Iran has reportedly deployed cruise missiles and loitering munitions alongside ballistic missiles, creating mixed-vector attacks designed to overwhelm integrated air-defense networks, which complicates the attrition calculus by forcing defenders to expend multiple interceptor types.

This description was generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 66% chance (12 traders, as of May 2, 2026).