Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 8 "Manifold will always predict that people are...
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resolved Jan 6
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mostly
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wiser
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all
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Manifoldussy
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Welcome to the Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 8.

This is an experiment to see if Manifold Next Word Prediction Model can generate a coherent response to the prompt, "write a ten word sentence".

Over the last 7 days I created markets to predict the next word. So far the response is, "Manifold will always predict that people are..."

Over the next 3 days I will create a new market each day to predict the next word in the sentence.

Please add what you think the next word should be and/or vote up the best next word.

Please note, this will resolve to the highest scoring word - it will not resolve to the "Other" that means "an unspecified answer", but anyone may add "other" if the think that should be the next word.

If successful, I will run a series of markets to determine what the prompt should be in experiment 2.

Thank you for participating.

Btw, anything you can do to increase visibility and/or participation would be greatly appreciated.

Day 7 was:

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Day 9 now live:

bought Ṁ576 of mostly YES

Throw Away Make It Rain GIF

bought Ṁ10 of all YES

When will the market for each word be resolved?

@DrewRukavina It's always roughly around the same time-ish, but ultimately a surprise

bought Ṁ10 of wiser YES

@Tumbles around 6pm?

@Tumbles ps, please don't go in any more debt or I lose money

@DrewRukavina More like 8-10 am EST

bought Ṁ0 of mostly YES

@DrewRukavina tomorrow

bought Ṁ30 of large YES

I created a market earlier today for predicting the first full sentence of MNWPM.

https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/what-will-be-the-first-full-sentenc