Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
Dec 7
  • Resolves YES if the answer with the highest percentage in the POTY 2024 market is also the Time Person of the Year 2024 once it resolves. Also resolves YES if multiple top answers share the same percetange (up to 1 decimal point, if shown).

  • Resolves N/A if there is no POTY this year, or if the market results are manipulated somehow.

  • Resolves NO otherwise, including if the resolved answer is Other.

Ideally I'd hope to close this market in between the closing of the POTY market and the actual reveal.

The POTY market:

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I think you should consider closing this either before the shortlist comes out or a day after the shortlist because otherwise you risk a rush to cash in on the winner changing the outcome of the linked market

I'm using BTE's version as the reference market this time. Let me know if I should change it to Joshua's Consolidated Options version.

@NoyaV keep it the same but maybe call out BTE in your title so if someone else wants to change it they can and it's clear

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@JoelMcGuire Yeah admittedly my consolidated options market does make it easier to predict the winner by grouping options together.

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