Resolves YES if the answer with the highest percentage in the POTY 2024 market is also the Time Person of the Year 2024 once it resolves. Also resolves YES if multiple top answers share the same percetange (up to 1 decimal point, if shown).
Resolves N/A if there is no POTY this year, or if the market results are manipulated somehow.
Resolves NO otherwise, including if the resolved answer is Other.
Ideally I'd hope to close this market in between the closing of the POTY market and the actual reveal.
The POTY market:
1,000
3.00@Arky I guess it depends on the market options. I would say if the POTY market's highest answer is "John Doe" and the Time's POTY is "a group of people that also comprises John Doe" I would resolve YES, since the prediction was indeed part of the result.
On the other hand, if the market answered "Johns" and the Time's POTY was someone that just so happened to be called John, I would resolve NO.
The same could be said for Person + Concept. I would probably still resolve YES if the answer is either of the two.
Still, seeing the probability distribution I assume I won't need to worry about these cases.
I think you should consider closing this either before the shortlist comes out or a day after the shortlist because otherwise you risk a rush to cash in on the winner changing the outcome of the linked market
I'm using BTE's version as the reference market this time. Let me know if I should change it to Joshua's Consolidated Options version.
@NoyaV keep it the same but maybe call out BTE in your title so if someone else wants to change it they can and it's clear
@JoelMcGuire Yeah admittedly my consolidated options market does make it easier to predict the winner by grouping options together.