A reputable, *secondary* source that describes Manifold as a popular prediction market.
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Suitable for use in a Wikipedia citation. (Tertiary source also acceptable.)

Original research or a post / market on Manifold is not going to work. A blog post also won't unless it's on an unusually reputable / popular blog.

Web site popularity stats are probably primary sources. A secondary source should compile and summarize those.

This will be based on my judgment, but if you get it into Wikipedia and it sticks that's definitely adequate.

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For context, I assume the NYT Manifest article was the first source? And that this Bloomberg mention doesn't suffice?

Everyone is forgetting that Manifold was cited in this extremely prestigious source: