As per the description the underlying market has changed. The link to the new one is in the description

If you go to the US Election dashboard, https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election?play=true is now linked as the market for "Who will win the Presidential Election". Can you confirm this is now what this market is a derivative of?

Will Trump win the 2024 Election?

48% chance. This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election. If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise. Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted. If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

@Tumbles

Yes you are correct, I have now updated the description

Preemptively, in case anyone brings this up, there is currently a bug in the graph of the presidential market showing it having been at D 61% for 10 hours, but if you take a look at the actual trading history it was only at these odds for less than an hour, reverting back to where it's currently trading (D 54-55), so this clearly does not fulfill the conditions of the markets still open here.

Has now been at 57% for 3 hours

the market has been at 57% for ~40 minutes

@Tumbles Dem 56% Resolves YES.

@Tumbles

I've noticed a slight discrepancy between percentages displayed in the bar graph, the line graph, and the trading log. Which one are you using to resolve here?

I think the trading log is best if it really comes down to it

@Tumbles I believe it’s been at 55% for 3 hours based on this. Can it be resolved yes?

@Tumbles Please resolve YES.

@Tumbles Dems at 55 for the last 30 min. We’ll see if it holds

Fell back down to 54 🤦‍♂️

If the linked does not close in time one option will quickly jump to 99.8%

@KongoLandwalker Close time in this market is oct 21 so that won’t be a problem

@traders Important edit to the description, this market is meant to be based on whatever Manifold Politics' primary election market is

I really like the colour scheme