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Fixed resolution

@DavidChee found out that because this market was before a certain date, our current re-resolution tech doesnt fully support fixing resolutions this old.

So the profits have been fixed for the leaderboard and the correct winners were paid, but it didnt actually undo the first resolution (eg. Take the profits back). So it's as if the market got resolved twice lol in terms of mana payouts.

😭

https://manifold.markets/link/yZYmDaPC

Misclick—amend to NO

rip, at least its not "yes" resolution

how about this fix to manifold: you can change resolution of market in 5 minutes after resolving for the first time to prevent these misclicks

@Gigacasting Oh shoot. I think we probably are planning to code a mechanism that allows us to retroactively change market resolutions for situations like this. But it might not be in the next few weeks.

@Gigacasting

@Gigacuck sometimes you wonder if a misclick occuring or just user being emotional too much

@DavidChee Any update on this?

should be resolved, right?

@SranPandurevic Gigacasting posted that result is linear PROB if there is a nuclear weapon detonated from 7 am to 10 pm EST. It is currently about 8 PM EST.

@SranPandurevic i would think so. actual midterm markets bout to start closing and this guy still can't decide if nuke went off.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-biding-time-before-conducts-7th-nuclear-test-experts-say

""I think Kim has been holding off on a nuclear test because he wants to rub it into the U.S. and South Korea with a major Hwasong-17 ICBM test before escalating further with a nuclear test," Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told Fox News Digital."

@brp It feels plausible to me, but it's also seemingly just a random pundit speculating on a plausible theory without any particular evidence one way or the other. Still, it inspired me to make this market:

All previous tests have occurred on sunny mornings between 9am and 12pm. Monday is forecast to be cloudy, and Tuesday is forecast to be sunny. If NK were to do a test between 9am and 12pm on Tuesday (NK time), then that would be between 7pm and 10pm ET on Monday in the US, and hence before the midterms. I think that is the main chance left in this question.

@belikewater https://www.google.com/search?hl=ko&q=weather%20in%20punggye%2Dri%20north%20korea

But I'm personally skeptical that North Korea cares about the US political schedule. My read is that they are worried about winter grain stores, and any test will be followed by ~demands~ requests for rice donations.

manifold is a weather forecasting app now 😂 🌧

Indeed, I have been following the weather in P'unggye-ri more closely than my own local weather for the last week lol!

@jack Clear skies with a chance of earthquakes?

Well, it didn't happen before the midterms, but I still think a test is likely in the near future.

@belikewater i really don’t think there is a good reason to think we would even know yet if they did or not. A tactical nuke isn’t going to create the same level of seismic activity as the recent tests so it may take awhile longer to confirm either way.

@BTE Isn't this kind of saying that this market should never be resolved? Can you prove that a nuclear detonation DIDN'T happen, anywhere in the world (not just in North Korea)?

@wavedash It could be reasonable to wait some amount of time and see if there's any news/announcement. I don't particularly think it's necessary, and it's unclear how long you should wait, but that would be a reasonable option.

@jack Most of my trump markets operate this way, too, under the theory that an indictment could be sealed. I think I gave it a 2 week cutoff

@wavedash Not Forever. Just until the news of cycle is over. We would probably know by tomorrow at the latest.