Will North Korea test a Hwasong-17 ICBM before they test a nuclear weapon?

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resolved Dec 3

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YES

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Resolves YES if North Korea test launches a Hwasong-17 ICBM. Resolves NO if North Korea conducts a nuclear weapon test. Resolves N/A if neither happens by end of 2025.

Determination will be based on reliable media reporting and/or the following articles (if backed by reliable sources):

If most reporting suspects it was a Hwasong-17, I'll count it (similar to how Wikipedia lists suspected test launches).

Inspired by:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-biding-time-before-conducts-7th-nuclear-test-experts-say

I think Kim has been holding off on a nuclear test because he wants to rub it into the U.S. and South Korea with a major Hwasong-17 ICBM test before escalating further with a nuclear test," Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told Fox News Digital.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predicted YES

News reporting has pretty consistently reported it as suspected Hwasong-17 and it's now listed on Wikipedia too. I think this is sufficient to resolve YES

predicted YES

https://www.nknews.org/2022/11/north-korea-claims-it-successfully-tested-a-hwasong-17-icbm/ "North Korea successfully tested a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, according to state media"

But this article also notes that NK's claims aren't reliable.

North Korea last claimed it first successfully tested a Hwasong-17 in March, releasing a promotional video and several photos of the event.
However, NK News reported that a likely ICBM exploded over the skies of Pyongyang on March 16, and NK Pro analysis of North Korean state media revealed it doctored images and video in a way that suggests the DPRK only successfully tested a Hwasong-15 that month.
“This time, I am much more confident [North Korea tested a Hwasong-17],” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told NK News. “The burn scar is in the right place.”

Will wait for further news from South Korea or others.

nuclear test immediately following this missile launch makes sense. First show delivery mechanism then show the warhead.

From Yonhap: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221104001654325?section=nk/nk

"The launch is presumed to have involved the Hwasong-17 ICBM, according to an informed defense source who requested anonymity. On Nov. 3, the North test-fired the same ICBM, but the launch was seen as a failure."

predicted YES

@brp Yeah, it's looking likely YES. Will continue waiting for news and analysis to come out.

Yes!! I was just reading this article about the Hwasong-17. Such incredible range!!!

Will North Korea test a Hwasong-17 ICBM before they test a nuclear weapon?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

@ManifoldDream Nice!

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