The US just attacked Venezuela and reportedly captured President Maduro. Will Venezuelans as a whole be better off at the end of 2026 compared to the end of 2025? Resolves based on my personal knowledge and understanding.
I will not bet in this market. I will try to be unbiased, but I am a Democrat who is generally doubtful of America attacking other countries. I am also not a fan of Maduro.
I will attempt to find trustworthy and objective criteria and reporting to inform the resolution, and may run a poll asking what people think about whether Venezuelans are better off. However, if suitable objective criteria cannot be found, the market will resolve based on my subjective judgment.
A trustworthy poll of Venezuelans would themselves asking if they're better off would be the gold standard if available.
This applies to people living in Venezuela, not people of Venezuelan heritage or Venezuelan citizenship.
1,000People are also trading
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-trump-military-operation-85041a1ec03bafe839b785a95169d694
It doesn't look like they are actually going to lift the sanctions unless the new president cooperates, and her rhetoric suggests she won't, even though there's other reporting indicating she had been negotiating with the US beforehand? Not sure what to think here
@SaviorofPlant I've created a new market on whether Rodríguez stays in power for the next 4 months, since Trump is threatening to remove her if she doesn't cooperate: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-delcy-rodriguez-still-be-presi?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA
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@MachiNi Good question, that’s poor phrasing on my part. I’m interested only in the people in this country for this specific question, and I believe that’s how others were thinking.
@Gabrielle Maybe that’s how how most traders were thinking but the plight of those who have fled is tied to the country’s plight (and for those in exile in the US to how the US treats them here and abroad). And since your question was about Venezuelans not the people currently living in Venezuela, and a huge fraction of its population has fled, I don’t think it should have been that obvious.
Moreover, what if a significant portion of those in exile return? What if thousands in the US are rounded up and shipped back? What if even more people decide to leave—will they no longer count?
@MachiNi I’m sorry if that meaningfully changes how you were betting here, that’s my fault for not clearly specifying.
@Gabrielle it doesn’t really, no worries. But I expect the population to change so I just want to be clear on whom it includes.
@SaviorofPlant and history suggests US occupation consistently improves conditions on the ground
@SaviorofPlant but the improvement in the lives of a few million Venezuelanas have to offset the overall cost of breaking international law, with the increased risks for future peace
@SaviorofPlant see the market creator clarification:
https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-venezuelans-be-better-off-at-t#mx7iea22kaa
@MiguelLM Oh I see. I think the economic improvement that can be expected here just from the lifting of US sanctions is substantial, but it will take a long time to make Venezuela's oil industry functional again, so there is a stronger NO case knowing this about the market's resolution
@MiguelLM https://x.com/paulmcleary/status/2007493532291063962
I'm not sure if this means "the VP will take over and listen to whatever I tell them" or "US troops will literally run the government" but I think the odds of an anti-US regime persisting through the threat of another coup, at least in the short term, are <10%
Base rates, folks.