Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if either:

1. The Bolivarian regime is replaced, democratically or by force, and a friendlier government is put in place.

2. The Bolivarian regime continues "ruling" the country, but under american leash: depending on the US to finance itself, to import goods, and export oil. Major american demands are obeyed, such as changing economic, social and foreign policy, giving up demand to the US, letting american companies operate and extract oil.

This market resolves NO if Venezuela:

1. Disobeys most american demands

2. Disobeys the most important american demands

In case of war:

A) If it's war is quickly and swiftly won by the United States, resolves as YES or 75%.

B) If there's prolongued resistance, and Venezuela manages to maintain effective control of it's territory by years end, resisting american demands, then it resolves as NO or 25%.

In case Venezuela tries to disobey the US, only for its leaders to be replaced, killed, or threatened into submission, it will resolve as YES. The spirit of this market is: will it be mostly submissive for most of the time, and what will be the end result?

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched military strikes on Venezuela's capital and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The Venezuelan government remained in place, with Rodríguez sworn in as acting president on January 5, 2026. The Trump administration has stated that Venezuelan decisions will be "dictated by the United States," with control exercised through oil revenues and energy resources. The U.S. administration has stated Venezuela will provide 30-50 million barrels of oil to the United States and that oil production authorization requires Venezuela to sever economic ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.

Considerations

The U.S. has no military personnel on the ground in Venezuela and no embassy in Caracas since 2019, meaning compliance depends entirely on the Venezuelan government's willingness to follow U.S. directives under threat of further military action, from blockades to aerial attacks, special operatios or full out invasion. Rodríguez and her brother are civilians with little direct influence over state forces and must negotiate with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who control the armed forces and intelligence services, creating internal constraints on her ability to comply with all U.S. demands. The repressive machinery Maduro used remains in place under the new government, suggesting the regime may resist demands that threaten its survival. America's control of Venezuelan airspace and waters means the regime is almost entirely dependant on the US - to finance itself, to provide for the people and the military. Apparently they forced a humiliating deal on this so called "anti imperialist" regime, in which their oil can only be sold BY THE US and they can only import BY THE US - a de facto 21st century colonial pact.