Wikipedia lists Maduro as the President de jure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela

We're not necessarily following Wikipedia in this market, but I think that's a good reflection of the current situation.

@EvanDaniel she's been formally sworn in by the Assembly. does this hang on her being "interim" or "acting" while Maduro may still be de jure President, at least for a few more months as allowed by the constitution? https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/delcy-rodriguez-sworn-in-as-venezuela-s-interim-president-255418949792

@deagol Maduro was not killed

@Areal there are constitutional limits to a temporary absence. Of course they'll do as they please, but can't take the whole year to figure it out.

But it seems to me from other comments, the creator isn't going by formalities of the Venezuelan regime narrative, but more of a practical "is he in power" consensus. Thus why I asked.

@EvanDaniel Wikipedia no longer lists Maduro on the Venezuela page; on his own page it describes him as "while still nominally the president". I think we should wait a bit longer, but if anyone has clearer criteria to suggest than Wikipedia consensus across articles or a formal thing by the Venezuelan government let me know.

@EvanDaniel what I was asking, specifically, is if the current consensus stands by year-end (Maduro nominally but VP is "in charge"), is that a YES or NO? Alternatively, what would need to happen to force an early NO, other than obvious stuff that officially strips Maduro from "de jure" like an election, coup, death, etc.

Note the only criteria in the description is "For the entire year" which can be taken as ruling out any temporary absence, meaning the current consensus already calls for an early NO. Finally, I think the Wikipedia consensus, apart from the Venezuela and Maduro pages, could also be taken from the relatively less contested https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela

Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]

https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g

Yes Limit order up @ 1%

You can’t resolve this until someone other than Maduro is officially President of Venezuela and acknowledged by Venezuelan people and institutions.

Ah, I see it has been un-resolved. Thanks for that. Let’s see what happens.

@jrmygrdn I don't think I agree! It seems entirely possible to have no president or an acting or interim president, or a leader with some other title, or for Maduro to be dead.

@EvanDaniel The VP has been appointed interim President by the judiciary

@ChurlishGambit why she claims there 8s only one president and he is Maduro?

Wikipedia also decided to keep Maduro not as a former

@EvanDaniel You’re right, there are some possibilities there!

@DerkachMichael To say otherwise, would be to legitimize what our government has done. But legally, she's now the interim President.

Much as I enjoyed betting no - isn't this resolution very early? I mean, he's not NOT the president just because he's been arrested by a foreign power.

@Noit fair enough.

@Noit when does he become not the president?

@Jack1 I dunno, but given wikipedia says the incumbent is "disputed" it can't be clear cut yet

@Noit Ok, I think that might mean it’s disputed who his successor is though (is it delcy etc), Wikipedia says he ended being president on 3 Jan. but No problem waiting, hopefully becomes clearer soon

@Jack1 sounds like the vice president is saying he's still president, so I think things are quite contested still. I don't see much harm in waiting a bit.

@EvanDaniel great, I offer to wait until 2027 for clarity

Is he officially no longer president under Venezuelan law? Seems too early to resolve @EvanDaniel

Holy shit

@spiderduckpig That was fast