Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
9
1kṀ748
Dec 31
32%
chance
8

Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:

  1. PDVSA is removed from the OFAC SDN list, or a general license allows broad US business with PDVSA

  2. Executive order formally terminates or suspends E.O. 13850 (oil sector) or E.O. 13884 (government property blocking)

  3. US Treasury/State announces Venezuela oil sanctions are "lifted," "ended," or "terminated" (not just "modified" or "waived")

If sanctions are lifted, resolves N/A.

If sanctions are NOT lifted, resolves to this market:

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Better off" is operationalized by the resolution of the linked market. If that market resolves YES, Venezuelans are considered better off.

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what does "better off" mean in term of operationalization?

@nikthink if the linked market resolves YES, they are better off

oh sorry my brain somehow ignored that linked market

NA if the sanctions are lifted, right?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@JeromeHPowell that's right

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